Who’s Polling Black American Voters?

By Rosaland Tyler   
Associate Editor
New Journal and Guide 

In 2024, Black voters must turn out at the polls in huge numbers because it’s unknown how many pollsters actually ask Black voters, ‘What do you think about President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump?’

It’s impossible to tell the total number of Blacks who weighed-in on the recent New York Times and  Siena Poll, which shows former President Donald Trump is leading President Joe Biden in five of six swing states – Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin  – all of which Biden won in 2020. That poll is showing up on news accounts with headiness practically giving Donald Trump a clear way to the 2024 election.

Yet, if you scroll through the recent Nov. 5, 2023 poll, a linear graph shows only about 20 percent of those who actually participated in the recent poll were non-white. Most voters were ages 45 to 64. About 20 percent of the respondents were college grads.

Based on this new and possibly questionable poll, some prominent newscasters continue to say almost half of all Democrats would prefer Biden hang up his Air Force One bomber jacket after one term.

However, Biden’s support still remains strong among Black voters, who cast 89 percent of their total votes for Biden in 2020. Has that fact evaporated into thin air? Some polls say Biden’s favorability ratings among Black voters shifted from 84 percent right after he took office in 2021 to 74 percent at the end of March 2023, according to YouGov/Economist polling, but few polls substantiate these claims.

As a result, many are skeptical of Trump’s alleged 2024 favorability rating, including GOP presidential candidate Asa Hutchinson, who said at the Florida Republican Party’s recent annual Freedom Summit, “As someone who’s been in the courtroom for over 25 years, as a federal prosecutor, and also in defending some of the most serious federal criminal cases, I can say that there is a significant likelihood that Donald Trump will be found guilty by a jury on a felony offense next year.”

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While recent polls and news reports suggest Biden’s multi-racial base is eroding, it is unclear how many pollsters and journalists are actually ringing up Black voters, nationwide, and talking for hours about Biden and Trump  On average, Biden still leads among Black voters and Hispanic voters across national surveys so far this year.

“If he wins again next year, Biden’s final act in public life could be the surest flex of Black political power in decades,” Time magazine noted in April 2023.

It appears pollsters and journalists are obviously not ringing up Black voters, although they are clearly ringing up White voters.

Further, the most recent poll’s conclusion shows Trump actually leads Biden by only five points and Vice President Kamala Harris by only three points. Four years ago, many polls showed Biden as the most electable Democrat against Trump. Ultimately, Biden won the election.