Dems, Led By Spanberger, Lead; But Margins More Competitive

By Leonard E. Colvin
Chief Reporter Emeritus
New Journal & Guide

With just eight weeks remaining in the 2025 state wide race for Governor, Lt. Governor and Attorney General, Democrats hold leads all statewide polls in all three races against their Republicans rivals.

With early voting starting September 19,  Virginia Commonwealth University and  Roanoke College, two  of the most reliable statewide polling operations have the Democratic Candidates for the state’s top three offices leading their GOP rivals by varying margins.

The Real Clear Polling unit which compiles polling data from these polling operations, gives Democrat Abigail Spanberger, on average, a six-point lead over Republican Gubernatorial entry Winsome Earle-Sears 48.2 versus 42.0.

For instance, the latest Commonwealth Poll, released by the L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs at VCU last week, shows margins tightening in Virginia’s statewide races.

Among registered voters polled by the Wilder School between Aug. 18 and 28, former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger leads Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears 49 percent to 40 percent in the gubernatorial race, down from a 12-point margin.

The poll noted that nearly half – or 48 percent – of independent voters remain undecided.

In the lieutenant governor’s race, State Sen. Ghazala Hashmi holds a narrow 45 percent to 41 percent lead over John Reid, compared to her 10-point advantage in July.

Former Del. Jay Jones leads incumbent Jason Miyares 47 percent to 41 percent in the race for attorney general, down from nine points last month.

“The latest Wilder School Poll results reveal just how these races have become more competitive. In the contest for lieutenant governor, Senator Ghazala Hashmi holds only a narrow lead over John Reid (45-41 percent), despite Governor (Glenn) Youngkin’s unprecedented demand that Reid not run for the seat,” former Virginia Gov. L. Douglas Wilder said. “That speaks volumes about the limits of Youngkin’s influence. 

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“The governor’s race tells a similar story: Abigail Spanberger leads Winsome Earle-Sears 49 percent to 40 percent, suggesting that Youngkin’s endorsement is likewise not carrying the weight he might have expected. Even Attorney General Jason Miyares, closely tied to this administration, trails former Delegate Jay Jones, 47 percent to 41 percent.”

The poll found that the top issues for voters are rising cost of living (28 percent), women’s reproductive rights (13 percent) and immigration and education (12 percent).

According to media reports, Ava Pitruzzello, spokesperson for the Ghazala for Virginia campaign, said, “Virginians are seeing that John Reid does not share their values as he touts plans to close public schools and strip healthcare from more than 300,000 Virginians. As Senator Hashmi continues to travel the state, she will continue having conversations about the most pressing issues facing Virginia, including funding public education, ensuring every Virginian has access to affordable health care, and bringing down costs of living.”

A spokesperson for Spanberger said, “Abigail Spanberger is talking every day about her plans to lower costs for Virginia families – the most important issue for Virginians according to this poll, while Winsome Earle-Sears is backing the chaos coming out of Washington that is killing Virginia jobs and making life more expensive.

“Abigail has a record of bringing Democrats and Republicans together to get things done for Virginia – and just last month, Virginia’s largest police union endorsed her for Governor. Come January, Abigail will take the same bipartisan approach and focus on the issues that matter most to Virginians – lowering costs for Virginia families, protecting Virginia jobs, and making sure every Virginia parent can be confident that their kids will receive an outstanding education.”