2024: What Can We Expect From Black Turnout?

By Rosaland Tyler
Associate Editor
New Journal and Guide

According to NBC News, more than 1.3 million (or a total of 1,358,442 mail-in and early in-person votes) had already been cast in the state of Virginia by Oct. 25.

Nationwide, over 40 million votes have been cast thus far, according to the University of Florida’s Election Lab, which tracks early votes.

“I’m glad I voted early,” said M.E. Pierce, a retired educator who lives in Virginia Beach.

“Voting early takes the stress off,” said Pierce, who cast his vote in person the second day after early voting began on Sept. 20.

While Pierce said many of his friends told him they have already voted, he is aware that some Blacks may not vote in November. “I can’t tell you why people are not voting,” he said. “I can’t answer that question. I don’t know why. But I think you have a civic duty to vote.”

Here, he is referring to a steady stream of news reports that suggest some Blacks do not intend to vote. The Associated Press, for example, ran a recent story on a group of Black, low-income women who were interviewed at Mother’s Nest, a non profit in Macon, Ga.

Mother’s Nest provides baby supplies, training, food and housing to mothers in need. When asked how many planned to vote, “Of the 30, mostly women, six raised their hands,” according to The Associated Press.

“When a mom is in a hotel room and there’s six or seven people in two beds and her kids are hungry and she just lost the car, she doesn’t want to hear too much about elections,” Sabrina Friday, the group’s executive director said. “She wants to hear how you can help.”

One woman interviewed in the AP story, Linda Solomon, came to Mother’s Nest with her grown son and daughter and grandchildren. None of them vote, she told The Associated Press. “Her son can’t because of a criminal record but she and her daughter won’t because, “ ‘If you ain’t got nothing, nobody has time for you whether you are Black or white. If you’re poor, you’re poor and they ain’t got time.’ ”

Solomon, 58, said she and her daughter aren’t voting “because nothing changes“ no matter who sits in the White House. “Why you gonna vote and ain’t nobody doing nothing?”

It is a familiar story that stretches back through several presidential elections. For example, census data shows 70.9 percent of white voters cast ballots while only 58.4 percent of nonwhite voters cast votes in the 2020 presidential election.

More than 75 million people eligible to vote did not cast ballots, according to a study by the Center for Inclusive Democracy at the University of Southern California.

Still, Black voter enthusiasm is high nationwide for the 2024 presidential election, according to a Washington Post-Ipsos poll conducted this summer, in early June.

The survey found that 74 percent of Blacks said they will  vote in November, compared with 59 percent who turned out in 2016. And the percentage of Blacks who said the outcome of the 2024 election matters a great deal to them jumped by 11 points, to 71 percent, from January to June.

The point is it is important to notice how Black and White voter turnout has ebbed and flowed through the years. Black voter turnout, for example, declined nationwide in 2016, when Hillary Clinton was the Democratic presidential nominee. Seven million fewer Black voters went to the polls that year compared to 2008 and 2012, when Obama was on the ballot.

White voter turnout, meanwhile, dropped from 70.2 percent in 1992 to 60.7 percent in 1996, when Gov. Bill Clinton of Arkansas defeated incumbent Republican President George H. W. Bush and independent businessman Ross Perot of Texas.

Will more Blacks go to the polls and vote in November 2024? Or will the Black voter turnout rate decline again, as it declined for the first time in 20 years during the 2016 presidential election? (The Black turnout rate fell to 59.6 percent in 2016 after reaching a record-high 66.6 percent in 2012).

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In Milwaukee, which is located 891 miles away from Macon, Kevin Newell told NBC News he will cast his vote for Kamala Harris. Newell, 40, is the founder of Royal Capital Group in Milwaukee.

Newell’s story matters because a steady stream of news reports suggest some Black men will not vote. Some will not vote because Harris is a woman while others will not vote because of her policies.

“The narrative is twisted,” Newell told NBC News in a recent interview. “You hear, ‘Black women are all in.’ And then they talk about Black men and they say, ‘Oh, a lot of them are voting for Trump.’ And that’s not only an unfortunate narrative, but I don’t believe that’s true.”

Newell said, “Obama’s presidency made all of our walks easier, because even in corporate America they saw him in me and I was viewed not as a unicorn, but as someone who could be competent.”

Still, Newell wants Harris to tackle glaring issues in Black neighborhoods including education.

Harris understands issues specific to Black people because “she’s lived it,” Newell told NBC News, referring to Harris’ experience of being bused as a young student and attending an HBCU. “I’m not voting simply off of fear of the other guy. I’m voting on things that I believe that can really transcend and take the country forward.”

Still, the question remains– Will Black men and women turn out and vote in record numbers in November?

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Wendall Pierce, best known for his work as an actor in “The Wire,” recently told USA TODAY, “I find that, like all voters, what have you done for me lately is the question,”

Pierce, the actor, has been fundraising for Harris. He campaigned for her last month at a Milwaukee barbershop. He said Harris will face complaints no matter what she does. After a mid-October New York Times/Siena College poll of likely voters showed the economy was cited as a major concern,  Harris unveiled policies aimed specifically at Black men, (23 percent of whom said the economy was their top issue).

Harris has since put forward a set of programs that include the expansion of apprenticeships and a health equity initiative that focuses on issues that disproportionately affect the Black community such as sickle cell disease and diabetes.

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However, Martin Luther King III, son of the civil rights icon, told USA TODAY in a recent Oct. 24 interview, “This election is not going to be won or lost by the number of Black men that support or do not support (Harris), even though it’s going to be probably razor-thin. You can’t go and say, well, it’s Black men’s fault.”

King added, “That’s where it seems like it’s trying to go.”

Pierce, the actor, who is working with Harris recently told USA TODAY, “There will be misogyny and racism. That’s a part of this campaign, and you combat that with policy, getting out the vote and messaging.”

But, Pierce, the retired educator who voted early in Virginia Beach, said, “I do not have a problem voting for a competent female. I worked in education for 35 years and 65 percent of my bosses were females. I do not believe a person’s competence should be determined by their gender. I don’t think her competence is an issue. They are making this stuff up.”